000
FXUS63 KDMX 281125
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
625 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active through the period with periodic precipitation chances

- Warmest day Friday (55 N TO 70 S), otherwise temperatures
  varying around normal through the period

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

An active weather regime will continue through the period. Next
weather-maker will come from a deepening upper low in the
southwestern US. Energy will be ejecting from that low and
pushing into the midwest at the same time as a stronger wave drops
into the plains from a low in the northern stream. The
associated surface low and attendant warm front are forecast to
track across Iowa mainly Friday. With strong warm advection and
lift above the warm front, could see thunderstorms Friday
afternoon into Friday night especially in eastern portions of
the forecast area.

As we head into the weekend, the upper flow flattens into more
of a zonal flow pattern. This will result in seasonal
temperatures and a quiet day Saturday. Then Saturday night the
next surface low approaches from the west and marks the
beginning of an extended period of precipitation chances.
Current model solutions suggest the favored location for the warm
front is over northern Missouri. With the quick-changing nature
of this pattern, confidence in the timing and track remain low
for now. That said, it is likely that much of the forecast area
will see precipitation in the Sunday/Monday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

VFR through the period. Surface winds will be variable as a
surface boundary progresses across the region. However, wind
speeds will be under 10 kts.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DMD
AVIATION...DMD

NWS DMX Office Area Forecast Discussion